主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
论文

基于轨迹和波动的新生网商成长模式及特征研究

展开
  • 1. 清华大学经济管理学院, 北京 100084;
    2. 清华大学现代管理研究中心, 北京 100084

收稿日期: 2017-01-23

  修回日期: 2017-07-14

  网络出版日期: 2018-06-22

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目(71490721,71572092,71110107027);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地基金项目(12JJD630001)

Research on the Growth Patterns and Characteristics of Start-up Online Sellers Based on Trajectory and Volatility Analyses

Expand
  • 1. School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    2. ResearchCenterforContemporaryManagement, TsinghuaUniversity, Beijing 100084, China

Received date: 2017-01-23

  Revised date: 2017-07-14

  Online published: 2018-06-22

摘要

新生网商是网络零售市场的重要经济主体,研究其成长模式及特征有助于揭示电子商务环境下新生企业成长的内在机制。本文依据Penrose企业成长理论及新生网商成长特点的相关研究,提出以成长轨迹(具有路径依赖特征)和成长波动的二维框架对成长模式进行识别,并针对新生网商成长不连续特征提出相对扩张指标来描述其时序轨迹。对电子商务平台上5582家新生网商的相对扩张轨迹进行时序k-means聚类发现,新生网商存在三类典型成长轨迹(加速/匀速/减速),同时对成长波动划分高/低水平,从而在二维矩阵框架下得到六类成长模式的网商。分析表明网商成长模式与其所经营的产品类型、初始主营类目、从属主营类目和类目转换次数具有统计显著的相关性,其中初始主营类目对成长模式的影响最大;"珠宝手表"类目中减速/低波动模式的新生网商占比远高于其他类目,"服装"类目中匀速/高波动模式的新生网商占比高于其他类目。同时,不同成长模式的网商在销售绩效及信誉等级指标上存在统计显著差异,其中,加速/高波动的新生网商与其他类别网商之间的销售绩效差异最大,加速/低波动的网商与其他成长模式网商的信誉等级差异最大。本文为电子商务平台评价新生网商成长过程和提供个性化服务提供了理论基础。

本文引用格式

何玉梅, 郭迅华, 陈国青 . 基于轨迹和波动的新生网商成长模式及特征研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018 , 26(4) : 108 -119 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.013

Abstract

Online start-ups are the engines of growth, innovation, and wealth creation on electronic marketplaces. Although it is expected that the growth patterns of online start-up swill be different from their offline counterparts, the extant research has not paid sufficient attention to this unique group of firms. In this paper, the typical growth patterns and characteristics of start-up online sellers are explored.Drawing upon Penrose's growth theory, it is theorized that start-up online sellers' growth pattern can be conceptualized by the growth trajectory and the growth volatility. Moreover, their choice of product categories will also shape their growth patterns, leading to diverse performance.Based on a longitudinal clustering analysis, three types of growth trajectories are identified, namely "accelerating", "constant", and "decelerating". Consolidating with the volatility levels(high/low), typology of six types of growth patterns is formulated. The Chi-square test shows that the growth patterns are significantly associated with both the sellers'product types (search/experience good), initial product categories, and their primary product categories. In addition, the ANOVA and Kruskal-Walls analyses show that seller performance (sales and rating levels) significantly differs between growth patterns. The "accelerating/high volatility" sellers' performance is the most prominent distinctive one.Our findings contribute to firm growth pattern research by exploring the context of online start-ups. Moreover, our work provides implications for e-commerce platforms to evaluate the start-up online sellers and supportspecialized service according to their growth patternp/>

参考文献

[1] Wang Youwei, Wang Shan, Fang Yulin, et al. Store survival in online marketplace:An empirical investigation[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2013(56):482-493.

[2] 王萌,郭迅华,陈国青,等. 在线关系对中小网商绩效影响的实证分析[J].中国管理科学, 2016, 24(10):156-163.

[3] 左手"淘宝",右手"造物"-2017年网商报告之创新生态[R],阿里研究院,2017.

[4] Annual Report from Amazon in 2016[R], Amazon, 2016.

[5] 淘宝集市个体店家的社会和执业特征[R], 北京大学经济发展研究中心及阿里巴巴研究中心, 2012.

[6] Dooley KJ, Van de Ven AH. Explaining complex organizational dynamics[J]. Organization Science, 1999, 10(3):358-372.

[7] Coad A, Frankish J, Roberts R G, et al. Growth paths and survival chances:An application of Gambler's Ruin theory[J]. Journal of Business Venturing, 2013, 28(5):615-632.

[8] Penrose E T. The theory of the growth of the firm[M], Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1959.

[9] Garnsey E, Stam E, Heffernan P. New firm growth:Exploring processes and paths[J]. Industry and Innovation, 2006, 13(1):1-20.

[10] Brenner T, Schimke A. Growth development paths of firms-A study of smaller businesses[J]. Journal of Small BusinessManagement, 2015, 53(2):539-557.

[11] Bottazzi G, Secchi A. Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?[J]. Economics Letters, 2003, 80(3):415-420.

[12] Stam E. Growth beyond Gibrat:Firm growth processes and strategies[J]. Small Business Economics, 2010, 35(2):129-135.

[13] McKelvie A, Wiklund J. Advancing firm growth research:A focus on growth mode instead of growth rate[J]. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 2010, 34(2):261-288.

[14] Poole M S, Van de Ven A H, Dooley K, et al. Organizational change and innovation processes:Theory and methods for research[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,2000.

[15] Joseph D, Boh W F, Ang S, et al. The career paths less (or more) traveled:A sequence analysis of IT career histories, mobility patterns, and career success[J]. MIS Quarterly, 2012, 36(2):427-452.

[16] Fan Ying, Ju Jiandong, Xiao Mo. Reputation premium and reputation management:Evidence from the largest e-commerce platform in china[J]. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2016, 46:63-76.

[17] Diambeidou M B, Gailly B. A taxonomy of the early growth of Belgian start-ups[J]. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 2011, 18(2):194-218.

[18] Delmar F, Davidsson P, Gartner W B. Arriving at the high-growth firm[J]. Journal of Business Venturing, 2003, 18(2):189-216.

[19] McMahon R G. Deriving an empirical development taxonomy for manufacturing SMEs using data from Australia's business longitudinal survey[J]. Small Business Economics, 2001, 17(3):197-212.

[20] Acs Z J. High-impact firms:Gazelles revisited[M]//Fritsch M. Handbook of research on entrepreneurship and regional Development:National and regional perspectives. Massachusetts:Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011:133-174.

[21] Kemp R G, Verhoeven W. Growth patterns of medium-sized fast-growing firms[M], Zoetermeer:EIM Business & Policy Research, 2002.

[22] Lee C. A theory of firm growth:Learning capability, knowledge threshold, and patterns of growth[J]. Research Policy, 2010, 39(2):278-289.

[23] Goldmanis M, Hortaçsu A, Syverson C, et al. Ecommerce and the market structure of retail industries[J]. The Economic Journal, 2010, 120(545):651-682.

[24] Grewal D, Iyer GR, Levy M. Internet retailing:Enablers, limiters and market consequences[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2004, 57(7):703-713.

[25] Singh N, Kundu S. Explaining the growth of e-commerce corporations (ECCs):An extension and application of the eclectic paradigm[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2002, 33(4):679-697.

[26] Ba S, Pavlou P A. Evidence of the effect of trust building technology in electronic markets:Price premiums and buyer behavior[J]. MIS quarterly, 2002:243-268.

[27] 邓爱民, 陶宝, 马莹莹. 网络购物顾客忠诚度影响因素的实证研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2014, 22(6):94-102.

[28] Genolini C, Falissard B. KmL:A package to cluster longitudinal data[J]. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, 2011, 104(3):112-121.

[29] Genolini C, Falissard B. KmL:K-means for longitudinal data[J]. Computational Statistics, 2010, 25(2):317-328.

[30] Gilbert B A, McDougall P M, Audretsch D B. New venture growth:A review and extension[J]. Journal of Management, 2006, 32(6):926-950.

[31] Delmar F, McKelvie A, Wennberg K. Untangling the relationships among growth, profitability and survival in new firms[J]. Technovation, 2013, 33(8-9):276-291.

[32] Pettus M L. The resource-based view as a developmental growth process:Evidence from the deregulated trucking industry[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 2001,44(4):878-896.

[33] Reichstein T, Dahl M S. Are firm growth rates random? Analysing patterns and dependencies[J]. International Review of Applied Economics, 2004, 18(2):225-246.

[34] Cabral L, Hortaçsu A. The dynamics of seller reputation:Evidence from eBay[J]. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 2010, 58(1):54-78.

[35] Coad A, Segarra A, Teruel M. Like milk or wine:Does firm performance improve with age?[J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2013, 24(0):173-189.

[36] Chandler G N, McKelvie A, Davidsson P. Asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty asmoderators of the sales growth-employment growth relationship in emerging ventures[J]. Journal of Business Venturing, 2009, 24(4):373-387.

[37] Daunfeldt S, Elert N, Johansson D. The economic contribution of high-growth firms:Do policy implications depend on the choice of growth indicator?[J]. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 2014(14):337-365.

[38] Murphy G B, Trailer J W, Hill R C. Measuring performance in entrepreneurship research[J]. Journal of Business Research, 1996, 36(1):15-23.

[39] Weinzimmer L G, Nystrom P C, Freeman S J. Measuring organizational growth:Issues, consequences and guidelines[J]. Journal of Management, 1998, 24(2):235-262.

[40] Davidsson P, Achtenhagen L, Naldi L. Small firm growth[M]. Boston:Now Publishers Inc, 2010.

[41] Achtenhagen L, Naldi L, Melin L. "Business growth"-Do practitioners and scholars really talk about the same thing?[J]. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 2010, 34(2):289-316.

[42] Shepherd D, Wiklund J. Are we comparing apples with apples or apples with oranges? Appropriateness of knowledge accumulation across growth Studies[J]. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 2009, 33(1):105-123.

[43] Comin D, Mulani S. A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009, 56(8):1023-1042.

[44] Davis S J, Haltiwanger J, Jarmin R, et al. Volatility and dispersion in business growth rates:Publicly traded versus privately held firms[M]. Cambridge MA:MIT Press:2007.

[45] Frankish J S, Roberts R G, Coad A,et al. Do entrepreneurs really learn? Or do they just tell us that they do?[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2013, 22(1):73-106.

[46] Dobbs M, Hamilton R T. Small business growth:Recent evidence and new directions[J]. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, 2007, 13(5):296-322.

[47] Wiklund J, Patzelt H, Shepherd D. Building an integrative model of small business growth[J]. Small Business Economics, 2009, 32(4):351-374.

[48] Nelson P. Information and consumer behavior[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1970,78(2), 311-329.

[49] Girard T, Dion P. Validating the search, experience, and credence product classification framework[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2010, 63(9):1079-1087.

[50] Korgaonkar P, Silverblatt R, Girard T. Online retailing, product classifications, and consumer preferences[J]. Internet Research, 2006,16(3):267-288.

[51] Hsieh Y C, Chiu H C, Chiang M Y. Maintaining a committed online customer:A study across search-experience-credence products[J]. Journal of Retailing, 2005,81(1):75-82.

[52] Huang Peng, Lurie N H, Mitra S. Searching for experience on the web:An empirical examination of consumer behavior for search and experience goods[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2009,73(2):55-69.

[53] Rice S C. Reputation and uncertainty in online markets:An experimental study[J]. Information Systems Research, 2012, 23(2):436-452.

[54] Mavlanova T, Benbunan F R, Koufaris M. Signaling theory and information asymmetry in online commerce[J]. Information & Management, 2012, 49(5):240-247.

[55] Zhou Ming, Dresner M, Windle R. Revisiting feedback systems:Trust building in digital markets[J]. Information & Management, 2009, 46(5):279-284.

[56] Dellarocas C. How often should reputation mechanisms update a trader's reputation profile?[J]. Information Systems Research, 2006, 17(3):271-285.

[57] Chouakria A D, Nagabhushan P N. Adaptive dissimilarity index for measuring time series proximity[J]. Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, 2007, 1(1):5-21.

[58] Caliński T, Harabasz J. A dendrite method for cluster analysis[J]. Communications in Statistics-theory and Methods, 1974, 3(1):1-27.

[59] Costner, Herbert L. Criteria for measures of association[J]. American Sociological Review,1965,30(3):341-353.
文章导航

/