伴随着我国经济从高速增长逐渐向经济新常态转变,港口的发展也从高速增长阶段逐渐趋近平稳,随之而来的港口风险问题日益突出。由于港口的发展同中国经济发展相似,呈现非常明显的非线性发展特征,这样采用传统的单一模型很难刻画这一现实问题。为此,本文首次构造了Logistic生长方程—马尔可夫组合模型,通过Logistic生长方程生成马尔可夫模型所需要的状态参数,在此基础上构造风险转移概率矩阵,有效的解决了港口投资风险的测度问题。本文选取1985至2014年的样本数据进行验证,结果表明:2016年后港口投资风险会突显出来,并将持续较长一段时期,表明我国港口正处在转型升级的关键时期,需加快从外延式扩张向内涵式发展转变,从粗放式到精细化管理转变。
China's economy is shifting from high speed growth to "new normal" development, the throughput capacity of the port also turn to slow down, the port risk problem is becoming more and more obvious. The development of the port is similar to China's economic development, and showing a very obvious nonlinear development features, it is difficult to describe the realistic problem by using the traditional single model. In this paper, the logistic growth model is initially combined with the Markov model, then logistic growth equation generates the state parameters that Markov model needs, and based on this fact, a risk transfer probability matrix is constructed. So the problem about the port investment risk measure can be effectively solved. The sample data from 1985 to 2014 is selected to verify the results, and the results show that the port investment risk will be highlighted after 2016, and will last for a longer period of time. China's port is currently in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and it is necessary to accelerate the transition from extensive expansion to the connotation of the development, from extensive to detailed management.
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