固定上网电价政策是促进可再生能源部署的重要政策手段。固定上网电价政策下，政府以市场电价和固定上网电价之和收购绿色电力。基于固定上网电价政策，本文建立了实物期权框架下的多主体完全抢滩博弈模型，以刻画投资者在竞争可再生能源项目时的投资决策。模型中，我们使用几何布朗运动刻画了市场电价的动态演化，同时考虑到了关于竞争对手投资时间的不完全信息对于投资决策的影响。理论方面，对手们的抢滩使得投资者的投资触发较垄断市场提早，而投资风险又使得其大于净现值原则的投资触发。数值分析显示独立于市场电价的固定上网电价越高，投资时间越早。本文的模型，可以帮助投资者在参与可再生能源项目投资时确定投资触发，同时政府可以依据投资者的反馈，制定合理的补贴价格。
In this paper, complete preemption game model based on the real option theory is provided to analyze the optimal investment timing for investors when they compete with counterparts for the renewable energy projects under the feed in tariff policies. A geometric Brownian motion is adopted to characterize the dynamic variation of electricity spot pricing. Also, the influence of incomplete information related to rivals' investment timings on the decisions is stuaied. Theoretically, it is proved that the investment timing is within the range with upper bound of the timing for a monopolist and lower bound of the timing decided by zero-net present value. Numerical results reveal that the more FIT level and the earlier investment timing. The proposed model is able to help investors to determine the optimal timing of the feed in tariff policies when they participate in investigating, and the policy makers can draft a reasonable FIT level according to the feedback of the investors.
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