复杂的网购环境，频发的网购事故，严重影响顾客的网购意图；货到付款支付方式所隐含的保险机制能够刺激潜在需求，但可能提高退货率，增加线上企业的经营成本。如何有效权衡利弊，制定不同支付方式下的最优经营决策是线上企业必须的核心问题。利用理性预期均衡的相关知识，考虑网上预付和双模式（同时提供网上预付和货到付款）两类支付方式下顾客的购买与退货行为，研究线上企业的最优价格和库存决策。结果表明：1）零售价格在网上预付方式下比双模式下更高；2）双模式中顾客全部选择网上预付时，两类模式的相对优劣依赖企业单位营业收入以及潜在市场需求；双模式中顾客全部选择货到付款时，两类模式的相对优劣则只取决于潜在市场需求；3）双模式中全部顾客选择网上预付比选择货到付款时企业利润更高，但都小于双模式中企业的利润最大值，且该利润最大值随市场结构的变化而改变。
The purchase intention of online consumers is seriously affected by the complicate e-commerce environment and the frequent online fraud. Online sellers solve these problems by offering pay-on-delivery, helping to stimulate the potential market demand. However, it may increase the return rate and firms' operation cost. It is critical to balance the advantages and disadvantages and make the optimal operation strategy under different payment schemes. The online seller's optimal price and inventory decisions are researched under pay-to-order and dual payment scheme respectively (both include pay-to-order and pay-on-delivery). It's found that:1) the price is higher in pay-to-order; 2) the comparison between the two kinds of payment scheme mainly depends on the operating income per unit and the scale of potential market; 3) the profit in dual scheme is higher when consumers all choose pay-to-order than when they all choose pay-on-deliver, moreover, both less than the maximization of the profit, which is affected by market structure.
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