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中国管理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 22-29.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

需求分布规律变化情况下的报童订货策略

王海燕1, 隽志如2, Henry Xu3   

  1. 1. 东南大学经济管理学院, 江苏 南京 210096;
    2. 淮阴师范学院经济管理学院, 江苏 淮安 223300;
    3. UQ Business School, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia 4072
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-13 修回日期:2017-12-07 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-06-22
  • 通讯作者: 王海燕(1966-),男(汉族),浙江诸暨人,东南大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:智能健康信息服务管理、物流与供应链管理等,E-mail:hywang@seu.edu.cn E-mail:hywang@seu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目(71531004);国家自然科学基金重大项目(71390335)

Newsvendor Decision-making under Uncertainty of Demand Distribution

WANG Hai-yan1, JUAN Zhi-ru2, Henry Xu3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China;
    3. UQ Business School, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia
  • Received:2017-01-13 Revised:2017-12-07 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-06-22

摘要: 在需求分布规律变化情况下,报童在进行订货决策时会因为错误判断需求分布规律而导致期望库存成本增加。为了解决这一问题,本文集成传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息以正确地认知需求分布规律,在此基础上决策订货量。假设需求服从均值不同、方差相同的两种类型的正态分布,每一种正态分布的概率已知。利用信号检测理论构建基于历史需求信息与需求分布概率的报童最优订货策略,并与只基于需求分布概率的直觉规则订货策略进行对比。结果表明:只要排除需求分布概率很大或很小两种极端情况,最优订货策略比直觉规则订货策略在控制期望库存成本方面的作用更明显,即利用历史需求信息可以有效修正报童对实际需求分布的检测结果,从而提高实际订货决策的准确性。研究结果对传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息的集成以及需求信息交换等有一定的管理学启示和应用价值。

关键词: 报童模型, 需求分布检测, 订货决策, 期望库存成本

Abstract: When ordering under uncertainty of demand distribution, a newsvendor may make wrong judgments of demand distribution, which raises expected inventory costs. How to identify the demand distribution and make right inventory decisions is the main concern of this paper. Assume that the demand follows two different types of normal distribution, which have the same variance but different means. By introducing signal detection theory, an optimal ordering strategy is proposed based on historical demand information and nontraditional demand information to minimize inventory costs for the newsvendor, and it is compared with the intuition rule merely based on the probability of demand distribution. The results show that, excluding the two extreme cases where the probability of demand distribution is either too large or too small, the proposed optimal strategy is better than the intuition rule in controlling inventory costs. It means that with few historical demand information, the newsvendor can effectively adjust the result of demand distribution detection and thus improve his order decisions. Also, the managerial implications of this study in relation to the integration of historical demand information and nontraditional demand information and the exchange of demand information are discussed.

Key words: newsvendor model, demand distribution detection, ordering decision, expected inventory costs

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