燃煤机组退役与技术升级的减排及经济效益研究——基于鲁棒电源规划的方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0518

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 火电行业是中国推行节能减排战略所重点关注的行业之一。为了降低高污染燃煤机组对环境的不利影响，中国近年来出台了一系列的能源政策，鼓励淘汰高污染的燃煤机组或者对其进行超低排放改造的技术升级。本文研究了燃煤机组主动退役及超低排放改造升级的环境及经济的双重效益。基于电源投资规划鲁棒优化的方法，考虑了受不确定的环保税、超低排放机组上网电价的补贴及电能需求影响下的发电机组最优配置问题，构建了含两阶段决策的三层鲁棒优化模型。该模型是一类具有多个不确定场景耦合特征的大规模优化问题。为了求解的便利，采用列与约束生成（column and constraint generation，CCG）算法进行求解。算例分析结果显示，当考虑了燃煤机组主动退役及超低排放改造升级的决策时，本文构建模型所提供的最优电源结构方案能够有效地降低各类污染物的排放，同时提升发电企业的经济性。

关键词: 燃煤机组, 退役, 超低排放改造, 鲁棒优化, 电源规划

Abstract: Nowadays, environmental problems result from the overconsumption of fossil fuels have drawn a lot of attentions all over the world. Therefore, reducing the air pollution emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels has been a significant and inevitable trend in the future. In China, electricity industry is one of the most important industries in which the implement of emission reduction strategy is imperative. The electricity industry in China is dominated by high-polluted coal-fired thermal power units. In recent several years, China has introduced a series of energy policies to encourage the retirement and ultra-low emission retrofit for coal-fired units. This paper aims at answering the following three questions: 1) How much will the retirement and ultra-low emission retrofits of coal-fired units contribute to the emission reduction in electricity industry? 2) How to make the optimal planning when the investment of new candidate units and the retirement and ultra-low emission retrofit of existing coal-fired units are simultaneously considered and 3) How do the uncertainties of policy and market factors affect the decision-making of generation companies? To deal with these three problems, a novel robust optimization model is proposed. For the convenience of computation, column and constraint generation algorithm is adopted to solve the problem. The following three conclusions can be drawn from the numerical example: 1) The retirement and ultra-low emission retrofit of coal-fired units can improve both the economic and environmental benefits of electric power systems, by reducing the air pollution emissions. 2) The higher the electricity demand is, the more coal-fired units will be retrofitted. 3) The decisions of retirement and ultra-low emission retrofit of coal-fired units are sensitive to environmental tax and subsidy. Even if there is no subsidy, the environmental tax today is enough to encourage the retirement and ultra-low emission retrofits of high-polluted coal-fired units.

Key words: coal-fired unit, retirement, ultra-low emission retrofit, robust optimization, generation expansion planning

中图分类号:

TM621

钟志鸣, 李星梅. 燃煤机组退役与技术升级的减排及经济效益研究——基于鲁棒电源规划的方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2021, 29(4): 16-25.

ZHONG Zhi-ming, LI Xing-mei. Study on Emission Reduction and Economic Benefits of the Retirement and Technology Upgrade of Coal-fired Units—A Robust Generation Expansion Planning Approach[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(4): 16-25.

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