执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.016

中国管理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 157-167.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.03.016

执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究

程承^1,2, 王震², 刘慧慧², 赵国浩¹, 刘明明², 任晓航³

1. 山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院, 山西太原 030006;
2. 中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院, 北京 102249;
3. 南安普顿大学数学科学学院, 南安普顿 SO17 1BJ

收稿日期:2017-10-25 修回日期:2018-04-20 出版日期:2019-03-20 发布日期:2019-04-28
通讯作者: 王震(1969-),男(汉族),甘肃会宁人,中国石油大学(北京)教授,博士生导师,研究方向:能源金融与风险管理,E-mail:wangzhen@cup.edu.cn. E-mail:wangzhen@cup.edu.cn
基金资助:
山西财经大学校青年资助项目（QN-2018002）；国家软科学项目（2013GXS3B049）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（71774105）；山西省回国留学基金资助项目（2016-重点3）

Study on the Optimization of Investment Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy Projects-from a Perspective of Execution Time

CHENG Cheng^1,2, WANG Zhen², LIU Hui-hui², ZHAO Guo-hao¹, LIU Ming-ming², REN Xiao-hang³

1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China;
2. Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;
3. School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

Received:2017-10-25 Revised:2018-04-20 Online:2019-03-20 Published:2019-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为实现可持续发展并降低温室气体排放，中国需大力发展可再生能源，而激励政策对可再生能源发展具有重要推动作用。鉴于此，本文采用实物期权方法评价了中国可再生能源发电项目激励政策的实施效果：首先分析了可再生能源项目的经济性，提出模型假设，接着构建并求解实物期权模型。为更直观地评价激励政策效果，本文利用最优执行条件求解项目预期执行时间和不同技术水平下的激励政策最优值。最后，以光伏发电项目为例进行实证分析。研究表明：①目前，中国光伏产业还难以独立发展，仍需国家政策的支持，但现行或曾实施的光伏激励政策存在超额激励现象。②随着技术水平的提高，为鼓励投资者及时投资，政府需提高激励力度。③从政府支出、政策效果和技术影响三个角度综合分析，单项激励政策中上网电价政策效果最佳，但政府支出较高；价格补贴政策效果偏弱，但政府支出较低；与其他两项政策相比，成本补偿政策效果较差。

关键词: 实物期权, 激励政策, 执行时间, 技术进步, 可再生能源发电项目

Abstract: In order to realize sustainable development and to reduce the greenhouse gas emission, China needs to promote the development of renewable energy, which is highly related to the incentive policies. Therefore, in order to investigate the effects of different incentive policies and to optimize the incentive polices, a real option approach is applied to evaluate the renewable energy policies in China:The economics of renewable energy projects in China are firstly studied, corresponding assumptions are proposed, and then real option models are established and solved. The expected execution time and the optimal incentive values with respect to technological levels are also obtained. Then, solar photovoltaic (PV) projects are used as a case study. The results show that:(1) incentive policies are necessary for the development of solar PV projects, however, the current or previous incentive policies exceeds the optimal incentive values; (2) more attractive basic incentive policies should be promulgated if there is a technological progress in the solar industry; (3) from the perspective of the government expenditure, policy effects and technological impacts, the feed-in tariff is the most effective policy, but the corresponding government expenditure is also very large; the price premium policy is also a very effective policy, and the corresponding government expenditure is smaller than that of the feed-in tariff policy; the cost-recovery policy is less attractive than the feed-in tariff and the price premium policy.

Key words: real option, incentive policy, execution time, technological progress, renewable energy project

中图分类号:

F830.59

程承, 王震, 刘慧慧, 赵国浩, 刘明明, 任晓航. 执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(3): 157-167.

CHENG Cheng, WANG Zhen, LIU Hui-hui, ZHAO Guo-hao, LIU Ming-ming, REN Xiao-hang. Study on the Optimization of Investment Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy Projects-from a Perspective of Execution Time[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(3): 157-167.

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执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究

Study on the Optimization of Investment Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy Projects-from a Perspective of Execution Time

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