关键词: 大规模伤亡事件, 伤员救护, 生存概率, 心理成本, 模糊线性规划

Abstract: Natural disasters, conflicts and other emergencies threaten the lives and health of millions of people every year. During these casualty incidents, to which one of several area hospitals should each victim be sent? How is the order of delivery of casualties determined? Although much research work on these questions has been done, very few takes the psychological status of casualties into account. Injured people will have anxiety, panic and other emotions, which also affect how smoothly rescue work in a way. Therefore, besides resource availability (both ambulances and care) and injury condition of patients, rescue decisions depend on the psychological status of casualties. In this paper, the method calculating psychological costs is improved, and a bi-objective programming model is developed to minimize the psychological cost and maximize the casualty survival probability. Focus is put on the critical time period immediately following the onset of an MCI, and many facts including the dynamic changes of resources in different medical institutions, the real-time survival probability and the psychological condition of the wounded are considered. The bi-objective programming model is transformed by the fuzzy multi-objective linear programming, and solved using the mathematical programming solver, IBM.ILOG.CPLEX. Finally, a number of experiments are carried out under different conditions of rescue resources, and the effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified by these experiments. This paper would be a theoretical base and potential practice solution for emergency for victim rescue problem.

Key words: mass casualty incidents, victim rescue, survival probability, psychological cost, fuzzy multi-objective linear programming