关键词: 突发事件, 原油采购, CVaR

Abstract: The importance of oil to the economic life is evident, the high dependence of Chinese oil imports and centralization of import source regions causes us to pay more attention to energy security. How to effectively minimize the fluctuations of international crude oil price and avoid the risk of crude oil due to supply shortage or interruption, formulate the optimal procurement strategy under different emergencies is the focus of our attention. However, the research of procurement strategy under emergencies in existing literatures is insufficient. This paper uses monthly crude oil imports data, establishes a CVaR model based on different emergency cases, considering price fluctuations, effect of supply disruptions to GDP and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and also analyzes the crude oil import procurement strategies of three different scenarios under emergencies. It is found that when the crisis is expected to occur in the Middle East region, Africa and Europe/Russia are the ideal choices to increase purchase quantity. If price fluctuation in Dubai is not severe, the purchase quantity of Asia also can be appropriately increased. In addition, for only price fluctuations, the effects of using strategic oil reserves to reduce risks are limited. Only when supply is interrupted, it can play a good role of reducing risks and impacts on national economy. Minimizing the risk value of crude oil imports and considering the diversification of import sources, risks and rate of price fluctuations at the same time, the model of crude oil procurement strategy under emergencies based on CVAR established in this paper, not only enriches the research results of this field, but also provides a specific and operational reference for Chinese imported crude oil procurement strategies.

Key words: emergencies, crude oil procurement, CVaR